Sevilla vs Atlético Madrid: How Simeone can build a penalty box without a No.9

Atlético Madrid have taken 34 shots across their first two LaLiga matches.

Those shots have produced only 1.61 expected goals.

That is the problem Diego Simeone takes to the Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán.

Atlético have not struggled to reach the final third. They have not struggled to generate shooting volume. They have not even struggled to put bodies around the opposition penalty area.

What they have struggled to do consistently is make the defence lose control before the shot arrives.

Now the problem becomes harder.

Julián Álvarez is unavailable.

Alexander Sørloth is unavailable.

Atlético therefore arrive in Seville without the two players most naturally equipped to occupy centre-backs, threaten depth and give the rest of the attack a fixed reference inside the penalty area.

Simeone cannot simply replace the striker.

He has to replace the striker’s work.

That makes Saturday night one of the most revealing tactical tests of Atlético’s early season.

How do you build a penalty box when you do not have a No.9 to build it around?

The answer cannot be more shots.

Atlético need better reasons for the shot to exist.

The striker is not a position; it is a collection of jobs

A conventional centre-forward performs several tactical functions before finishing enters the picture.

He pins centre-backs.

He threatens the space behind them.

He gives midfielders a direct passing target.

He occupies the penalty spot when the ball travels wide.

He creates room for somebody else by making defenders stay close to him.

Without Julián and Sørloth, Atlético have to distribute those responsibilities across several players.

Ademola Lookman can receive and carry.

Álex Baena can connect.

Lee Kang-in can enter from the flank.

Giuliano Simeone can attack the last line.

None of them alone replicates a traditional No.9.

Together, they might not need to.

This is the structural challenge.

If Lookman drops towards the ball, Giuliano has to threaten the space he leaves.

If Baena receives between the lines, somebody has to pin the centre-back so he cannot simply step forward.

If Kang-in moves inside, the weak-side runner must attack the box rather than remain outside the possession.

Atlético’s striker on Saturday may therefore be the structure itself.

The danger is what happens when those responsibilities are not synchronised.

Lookman comes short.

Baena comes short.

Kang-in comes inside.

Everybody wants the ball.

Nobody stretches the defence.

Atlético circulate around Sevilla and eventually shoot from a position the defence was happy to concede.

That is exactly the type of attacking volume Simeone must avoid.

Nineteen shots against Villarreal produced only 0.79 xG.

The problem was not a lack of attempts.

It was the absence of enough moments when Villarreal’s last line had actually been compromised.

Sevilla will happily invite the same mistake.

Lookman needs the game in front of him

Simeone has already acknowledged the obvious tactical issue with using Lookman as the highest attacker.

His best football is usually played facing goal.

He wants the defender in front of him.

Space to attack.

A one-versus-one.

The possibility of carrying diagonally into the box.

Ask him to spend the entire evening receiving with a centre-back pressed into his back and part of his value disappears.

Atlético therefore need to create conditions in which Lookman can leave the last line without removing all depth from the attack.

Giuliano becomes important here.

If Lookman drops into the inside-left channel and Giuliano immediately runs beyond him, Sevilla cannot simply follow the first movement.

A centre-back who steps towards Lookman exposes the channel.

A defender who remains deep gives Lookman room to turn.

A midfielder who drops towards him opens a space for Baena.

One movement creates the question.

The second movement makes the answer expensive.

That is the combination Atlético need.

Not a false nine for the sake of tactical terminology.

A fluid frontline in which the defence never gets to solve one movement in isolation.

Baena must make a centre-back leave home

Álex Baena may be the key to the entire attack.

He has already influenced both of Atlético’s opening league games and provides something particularly valuable when a fixed striker is absent: the ability to receive in positions that force defenders to choose.

Sevilla will want their centre-backs close together.

That protects the space Lookman and Giuliano want to attack.

Baena’s task is to disrupt that security.

Receive between midfield and defence.

Turn if possible.

If not, hold the ball long enough that somebody has to engage.

The identity of that defender matters.

If a Sevilla midfielder drops back, Atlético gain a spare player in central midfield.

If Kike Salas or another centre-back steps out, the last line loses one of its defenders.

If nobody steps, Baena can face goal.

Atlético do not need Baena to score twice.

They need him to make the back line stop behaving like a back line.

That is how the absence of a centre-forward can be compensated for.

The striker normally manipulates centre-backs through presence.

Baena can manipulate them through invitation.

Come and get me.

Then attack the space you leave.

Giuliano can provide the depth Atlético are missing

Giuliano Simeone’s role should be judged through movement rather than conventional winger production.

His equaliser against Villarreal showed the value of arriving rather than waiting.

Without Julián and Sørloth, Atlético need that instinct even more.

When Lookman checks short, Giuliano should run behind.

When Baena moves towards the left half-space, Giuliano can attack the opposite post.

When Grimaldo delivers from the left, somebody has to enter the box with the mentality of a striker.

That player may repeatedly be Giuliano.

This matters because Sevilla’s defenders need a reason to remain deep.

If every Atlético attacker wants to receive in front of them, the line can advance.

The midfield and defence remain compact.

The spaces disappear.

Giuliano’s runs create the opposite effect.

Even when the pass does not come, the centre-back has to respect the possibility.

One defender retreats.

The line drops.

The pocket in front of it grows.

Suddenly Baena and Kang-in have more room.

Depth is therefore not merely an attacking action.

It changes the entire shape of the opposition block.

Atlético need Giuliano to keep asking Sevilla to turn towards their own goal.

Sevilla’s six points describe efficiency more than control

Luis García Plaza could hardly have asked for a better start in terms of results.

Two matches.

Two wins.

Six points.

But the underlying performances make Sevilla more interesting than the table suggests.

They generated 2.29 xG against Rayo and won 2-1.

Then they went to San Mamés, had only 35 per cent possession, took seven shots and generated just 0.42 xG — yet won 3-1.

That second match is especially important.

Sevilla did not control Athletic through territorial superiority.

They controlled the moments when the game stopped being orderly.

An opponent was reduced to 10.

A goalkeeper error appeared.

Transitions opened.

Sevilla punished them.

This is not the profile of a team Atlético should underestimate because the numbers look modest.

It is the profile of a team that has already demonstrated an ability to extract disproportionate value from disorder.

That makes Atlético’s rest defence essential.

Simeone’s side may have more possession.

They may take more shots.

They may spend longer around Sevilla’s penalty area.

None of that protects them from the one turnover that gives Ejuke 40 metres to attack.

Sevilla do not need to control the whole match.

They need Atlético to lose control of one moment.

Ejuke is the reason Atlético cannot attack irresponsibly

Chidera Ejuke is an obvious transition threat for precisely this game.

He does not require a settled attacking structure before becoming dangerous.

Recover.

Release.

Carry.

Attack the defender.

That sequence can be enough.

Atlético’s problem is that the absence of their natural strikers may encourage them to compensate by sending more midfielders forward.

Baena arrives.

Kang-in moves inside.

Llorente advances.

Grimaldo pushes high.

One of the pivots joins.

That can improve box occupation.

It can also expose the structure underneath it.

If possession is lost and Atlético have too many players ahead of the ball, Sevilla can bypass the whole attacking construction with one forward pass.

Ejuke then receives against defenders moving backwards rather than an organised block.

That is the picture Luis García should want.

The tactical paradox is clear.

Atlético need more players around the penalty area because they have no striker.

But every extra player around the penalty area increases what Sevilla can attack behind them.

Simeone has to manufacture box occupation without abandoning rest defence.

That balance may determine the result more than the possession share.

Hjulmand and Barrios have to protect the attack

The double pivot becomes fundamental.

Morten Hjulmand and Pablo Barrios cannot both interpret the same attacking moment as permission to advance.

One may step.

The other has to protect.

If Grimaldo is high, somebody has to cover the left transition lane.

If Llorente advances aggressively, Atlético need a player underneath the right side.

If Baena drops towards midfield, perhaps the pivot can move forward because another player has temporarily replaced him.

These responsibilities need to rotate.

They cannot disappear.

This is the difference between an attacking structure and simply having many attacking players.

Sevilla want the latter.

More red-and-white shirts ahead of the ball.

More space once the ball changes hands.

Atlético need the former.

Numbers forward, but with a connected platform underneath them.

The best way to stop Ejuke may be positioning that begins before Sevilla win possession.

Rest defence is anticipation.

Not emergency recovery.

Sevilla’s midfield wants to keep the distances boring

For Luis García, the defensive task is almost the opposite.

Sevilla need the game between their midfield and defensive lines to remain boring.

No free receiver.

No centre-back stepping unnecessarily.

No midfielder chasing Baena 15 metres out of shape.

No defender becoming obsessed with Lookman’s movement.

The likely midfield pairing around Agoumé and Kochorashvili can be crucial.

Their job is not necessarily to win every pass.

It is to prevent one Atlético receiver from making the whole defensive structure react.

If Baena drops, pass him on.

If Lookman comes short, do not automatically follow.

If Kang-in moves inside, close the lane without dragging the entire block towards him.

The more Sevilla can defend zones rather than individual movements, the harder Atlético’s striker-less rotations become.

Simeone wants movement to create decisions.

Luis García wants the same movements to create no decision at all.

Let the player move.

Keep the line.

Protect the next space.

That tactical discipline can turn Atlético’s fluidity into harmless circulation.

The moment a Sevilla centre-back is forced to step out, Atlético will know the structure has begun to crack.

Until then, the visitors may have to remain patient.

Sevilla can invite the shot

This is where Atlético’s early-season shot profile matters.

A compact defence does not necessarily try to stop every attempt.

Sometimes it chooses which shots it is prepared to allow.

Sevilla can accept Atlético receiving 20 or 25 metres from goal if the penalty area remains protected.

They can allow possession outside.

They can even allow a volume of attempts if those attempts are taken before the defence has been manipulated.

Nineteen shots for 0.79 xG is exactly that kind of game.

It looks like pressure.

It can actually represent defensive success.

For Atlético, the warning is psychological.

Do not use a shot to end a possession simply because the central space has become frustrating.

Move Sevilla again.

Switch.

Bring Baena towards the ball.

Send Giuliano beyond.

Reposition Lookman.

Attack the byline.

Force another defensive decision.

The objective is not to increase shot count.

It is to delay the shot until the defence has lost enough control that the shot becomes valuable.

Atlético’s first two games suggest that distinction remains unresolved.

The Sánchez-Pizjuán will test their patience.

Llorente and Grimaldo can create the striker from outside

The full-backs may provide another solution.

Without a conventional No.9, Atlético need runners arriving from different heights.

Grimaldo naturally gives width and final-third quality from the left.

Llorente can attack the opposite side with greater speed.

If both simply remain outside and cross towards Lookman, Sevilla should be comfortable.

If they use their width to move the block before arriving inside, the picture changes.

Imagine Grimaldo receives left.

Sevilla slide.

Baena moves towards him.

Lookman drifts away from the centre.

Now the cross may not be aimed at a striker at all.

Giuliano attacks the near side.

Llorente arrives at the far post.

Kang-in enters the edge of the box.

The striker’s work has been distributed.

This is what Atlético need.

A penalty area occupied by movements rather than one fixed reference.

That can be harder to defend because Sevilla cannot assign one centre-back to one striker.

But timing becomes everything.

Arrive too early and the defence sees the runners.

Arrive too late and the ball is already gone.

The absence of a traditional forward increases the demand for synchronisation.

The box has to be built at the moment the ball is ready to enter it.

Not five seconds before.

Sevilla’s personnel problems make the first hour important

Luis García has his own constraints.

Oso is unavailable while his future is resolved.

Rubén Vargas is also missing.

Kike Salas returns, and Alfon is back in the squad after injury, but he is not necessarily ready for a full match.

Seven academy players have been required in Sevilla’s wider matchday group.

That matters because this may become a game of substitutions.

If Sevilla spend an hour defending Atlético’s movement, the physical and cognitive cost will accumulate.

Track Baena.

Shift towards Grimaldo.

Recover.

Defend Kang-in.

Step towards Lookman.

Turn.

Reset.

Repeat.

The quality of Atlético’s bench can become increasingly valuable as those distances begin to grow.

Sevilla therefore need to make the first 60 minutes count.

Not necessarily by dominating possession.

By making Atlético work for every attacking phase.

By producing one or two transitions that force Simeone’s full-backs to think twice.

By keeping the scoreline level long enough that impatience begins to influence the visitors.

This is where the Sánchez-Pizjuán becomes part of the game.

The crowd will reward every defensive win and every counterattack.

Atlético must avoid allowing emotional frustration to increase tactical risk.

Atlético’s defensive line is altered too

Robin Le Normand’s suspension creates another variable.

Marc Pubill and Dávid Hancko are among the likely central options, while Cristian Romero has only recently joined the squad and is still building fitness.

That matters against Sevilla’s transition profile.

A defensive line develops automatisms through repetition.

Who steps?

Who covers?

Who tracks the runner?

Who protects the far side?

Change personnel and those decisions become slightly less automatic.

Ejuke will try to attack that uncertainty.

So will whichever Sevilla forward occupies the centre.

The home side do not need to dominate Atlético’s centre-backs through conventional striker play.

They can make them defend movement.

One runner central.

One wide.

One player underneath.

Atlético’s rest defence must remain compact enough that the new defensive relationships are not repeatedly tested in open grass.

Again, the attacking problem and defensive problem are connected.

The more Simeone tries to replace the missing striker by sending players forward, the more responsibility the new defensive combination inherits.

Sevilla will wait for that trade-off.

Luis García’s six points are built on recognising when the game changes

This may be the most important characteristic Sevilla have shown so far.

They react quickly to changes in game state.

The opponent makes a mistake.

Sevilla accelerate.

A red card changes the spacing.

Sevilla attack it.

A transition appears.

They do not waste it by resetting possession unnecessarily.

That efficiency is why their points total is stronger than some of their underlying numbers.

There is a lesson for Atlético.

Do not give Sevilla transitional information.

Do not lose the ball with everyone ahead of it.

Do not concede cheap set pieces.

Do not allow one bad pass to become a three-versus-three.

Because Luis García’s side have already demonstrated that they do not require repeated invitations.

One may be enough.

Atlético need the match to remain structural.

Sevilla need a few moments when structure disappears.

Those two ambitions will coexist all night.

The first goal could fundamentally change the attack

If Atlético score first, the striker problem becomes less severe.

Sevilla have to move higher.

The defensive line gains more space behind it.

The midfield has to press earlier.

Lookman suddenly gets the forward-facing game he wants.

Giuliano can run.

Baena receives with more space.

The entire tactical environment becomes more favourable.

If Sevilla score first, Atlético’s problem intensifies.

Now the home side can sit even more compactly.

Atlético must push more players forward.

Shots accumulate.

Impatience grows.

Transition risk rises.

This is why the opening goal matters beyond the scoreboard.

It determines whether Atlético can attack space or must manufacture it.

Simeone’s side should therefore value patience while the match remains level.

They have enough technical quality to create eventually.

The danger is trying to create the decisive action before the structure has created the conditions for it.

No striker means no excuse for no depth

This is the central standard by which Atlético should be judged.

Missing Julián Álvarez and Sørloth obviously reduces their options.

It does not justify playing without vertical threat.

Somebody must attack the last line.

Somebody must occupy the centre-backs.

Somebody must arrive between the posts.

It can be Giuliano.

It can be Lookman after beginning deeper.

It can be Llorente from the far side.

It can be Baena after releasing the ball.

The names can rotate.

The functions cannot disappear.

A modern attacking structure does not need fixed positions.

It does need fixed responsibilities.

That may be Simeone’s greatest challenge in Seville.

He has enough flexible attacking players to make the absence of a No.9 tactically interesting rather than purely damaging.

But flexibility without responsibility becomes overcrowding around the ball.

Everyone connects.

Nobody threatens.

Atlético already have enough evidence that shot volume cannot hide that problem.

Thirty-four attempts.

1.61 xG.

That ratio needs to change.

Not because they shoot less.

Because the defence should be in a worse position when they finally shoot.

Verdict

Atlético should have enough quality to control more of the ball and spend longer in Sevilla’s half.

That does not automatically make them favourites to control the dangerous moments.

Sevilla arrive with six points because they have been ruthless when matches become unstable.

Luis García will be comfortable allowing Atlético possession if his defensive lines remain connected and the visitors are forced into low-value attempts.

Simeone’s challenge is therefore not simply replacing Julián Álvarez or Alexander Sørloth.

It is replacing the structural pressure those forwards create.

Lookman has to receive facing goal.

Baena has to draw defenders out.

Giuliano has to threaten depth.

Kang-in has to arrive rather than merely circulate.

The full-backs have to use width to create different box entries.

And Hjulmand and Barrios must preserve enough protection underneath those movements to prevent Sevilla turning one turnover into the defining moment of the match.

Atlético do not need another 19-shot performance.

They need five or six attacks in which Sevilla’s defensive line is no longer comfortable before the final action begins.

That is the distinction.

A shot is only the final event.

The striker’s real work happens before it.

On Saturday, Atlético do not have a natural No.9 available to perform that work for them.

So the entire team must become one.

Sarvuno prediction: Sevilla 1-1 Atlético Madrid.